topic Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y in Modeling

Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting You?

Anonymous — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 19:54:10 GMT

Hi all.

How is the current economic situation affecting you in locations and the roles and field you work in, as an architect/drafter/designer/builder/etc.?

Myself: I'm in Eastern Europe, where we do mostly medium sized residential and commercial projects for local money and Eastern European Clients, with various 1st world nation investors. Almost all our foreign clients are residential investors, and mostly from places like the UK.
The market has almost died in the last 2 months (it is now February 2009) with no new clients in sight, which was my bread and butter previously in the roles I played with various firms.

I've talked with long-time peers and friends on the Pacific Coast, USA (PNW, USA, Oregon to Vancouver, B.C.) and they are not only hurting bad, but most are out of work and all the construction firms are only finishing up old or big-time clients, with no new building projects coming in. Like 99% dead. These are places (can't name names of firms, but well known, big and big commercial successes on the USA West coast!) where people are really wondering what they're going to do. Various solutions of course come to mind (Singing on street corners? Sketching buildings for food? Will BIM for BEER?) ...

I know a lot of us are all over the place, and all over the globe...
-How's things in YOUR neck of the woods, so to speak?

-Jena

(edit-. I know how much you all like questions and polls and surveys, so I added one here. *munch munch munch*)

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Chazz — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 15:53:23 GMT

Interesting topic but I admit that I was not sure where where to cast my vote. Still, I'm interested to hear others stories.

I'm the BIM manager for a midsize global manufacturer. We make a product everyone has used and our brand is well respected. My group designs and supports our retailing partners via store design, Point of Purchase (POP) fixturing, etc. Though we are US based, over 50% of revenues now come from the Central European market but we are also very active in Asia, Eastern Europe, and, to a lesser extent, Latin America and the African subcontinent.

Our business, in terms of volume, has been INCREASING markedly. Though the news everyday on the economy is absolutely terrifying, for some reason it has not (yet) affected this corner of the company. It has been suggested that in tough times retailers want to partner with a larger player like ourselves and this points to some of the increase (if they commit to carring our product for x years we will help them with tenant improvements, etc).

The feeling in our industry is that the economic downturn will eliminate a lot of the small fry and leave the larger, better positioned companies standing in the end. So far (and it is recklessly early to be predicting) this seems to be playing out for us.

Anybody else?

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Laura Yanoviak — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 16:58:08 GMT

Medium-size design firm in Denver, CO, USA

This time last year we had 60-some employees, now we have 34. Everyone has been on a 10% salary reduction for the past month until the foreseeable future. A lot of firms around town are doing the salary-reduction-bit.

On the bright side, there seem to be a lot of requests for proposals out there, and our marketing department is busier than ever.

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Chazz — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 22:54:39 GMT

Come on folks..... We're in the biggest global meltdown of our lives and only 3 brave souls have anything to say about how it's affecting them? Please people, I'm really curious about this and know others are too. If you share, I promise not to tell anyone else.........

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Anonymous — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 00:06:36 GMT

Well Ok...

We are a small firm, less than 5 people, in the South West of England. Specialising in one-off houses and conversions for private clients and small developers.

Things are crap at the moment. Unless exceptionally cash rich, clients cannot raise any money to do the work. Even when rich, banks are being very reluctant to give them their money! Several projects put on 'hold', projects mid-build clients are getting worried.

Several contractors we have worked with in the past have gone under. None of the big commercial developers are building any houses either. Hearing stories of practices all over the place reducing staff numbers by substantial percentages.

To make things more difficult we are also commercial landlords, and the tenants are all finding it difficult to pay rents etc due to the slowdown of their business also.

Family members also affected, one is in property rental - nobody renting anymore, one as a chef - nobody eating out anymore!

Conversely, talking to an architecty friend recently who works at another practice nearby (40+ architects), business for them is more-or-less unaffected! They do more large scale work like schools, hospitals and so on, so these areas seem to be more immune.

And I hear things will get even worse before they get better!

Oh well, lets be positive, at least the mortgage repayments are dirt cheap at the moment. Bank of England base rate now at 1%!!!

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Anonymous — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 06:10:04 GMT

What business?

...

Anonymous — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 09:13:48 GMT

I just spoke last week to a firm in Washington, USA and two Eastern European colleagues. All did a large spectrum of projects, and have only experienced a slow down (completely dead) in the residential remodeling/design sector and newer commercial rentals/office projects.

The City (civic/government) and State funded jobs are essentially unaffected, though budget proposals and costs have become more important than usual. City work and hospitals and schools (in the USA) seem to be picking up actually. Here in Eastern Europe, the big money clients are just more cautious, but in my perception, they’re more like sharks circling for the kill- As people loose property and projects get stopped, they see opportunity and even want designs and ideas on things they don’t own yet.

Most of my associates here no longer have offices full of house plans, but have city and road and park plans going on- renovations for civic and public buildings and property.
This week 7 projects I'm involved in, backed by UK investors, while not stopped, now need very detailed price proposals and changes –clients are having an extremely difficult time obtaining funding via banks, especially when the clients themselves are in the construction industry (double blow).

There’s a firm on the west coast of USA that specializes in public school renovations, and they’re hiring and looking for help, and word is business will be overwhelming soon for them, if Obama is good on his word and can get the programs moving to modernize the USA early-grades school buildings and such (I’m hoping he isn’t more intent on silly computers in the classroom and rather wants to make the actual buildings and education better and help the teachers more).

A colleague of mine here in Europe is working almost exclusively on civic works now- city planning all over Europe (renovations, prettier towns, road-way changes, etc). They rarely got this kind of work in the past and now it’s the only work they have outside of churches and state buildings.

It seems here either we’re working on civic projects, or those of us lucky enough to have independent-money clients (the bankers themselves, eh?) who are doing personal projects, still have residential work happening. Least on the USA West Coast and here in East Europe and the UK.

However, the two projects I have been working on FOR civic/government/city improvements IN MOSCOW, have stopped dead. Little word comes out of that part of the world even over here, except rumors. Maybe the old USSR is even worse of outside of private money sector?
Maybe with a lot of us experiencing slow-downs, it's a great time to get better at what we do and finally perfect those master templates and our AC skills, wot?

I am quite curious about other areas in the world too.

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Anonymous — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 17:02:47 GMT

As of last week no longer employed and there is no prospect of any work in the foreseeable future. This is the ninth time in my long career that the economy has taken a sever downturn and although it is currently not the worst in my history, it appears that the direction will takes us fully in the toilet before any recovery - if we recover at all.

Private enterprise will continue to suffer as long as government thinks that redistribution works.

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Rick Thompson — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 17:36:51 GMT

With only one employee (me) I am not planning to reduce the staff any. The majority (really, all) of my work is niche market stock plans. I've gone from sending out one or two a day to one of two a week. But, I have plenty of time to develop new plans, and rebuild the web site.

So, how is it affecting me? I am now taking guitar lessons, and I keep the kegerator full... not too bad really. The warning signs came early.. years ago really.

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Anonymous — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 19:50:13 GMT

LewBishop wrote:
As of last week no longer employed and there is no prospect of any work in the foreseeable future. This is the ninth time in my long career that the economy has taken a sever downturn and although it is currently not the worst in my history, it appears that the direction will takes us fully in the toilet before any recovery - if we recover at all.

Private enterprise will continue to suffer as long as government thinks that redistribution works.

Hi Lew:

It's been a long time since we talked so I don't know if you remember me.

I have one son in college (architecture......lol) and a daughter going off to college next year-if we can afford it.

Things look bad for the custom residential business here in southern Calfornia,
but I remain a little bit optimistic.

Don Lee

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Anonymous — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 05:31:38 GMT

At least for now.....
I'm a small time residential remodeler/design builder in N. Calif and I'm doing ok. Can't tell you where though, it would cause a flood to our area.
No secret really.
Use AC, and;
Be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.
How small you ask?
Well, I keep my overhead low by filtering algae with a complex
profile of my teeth.
Although, I'm thinking of switching to a mesh.
P.S.
Get out of your office and go shake some hands.
Walk and talk your asss off, become the expert in your
part of the jungle.
Oh yeh, don't forget to breathe!

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Link — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 06:54:38 GMT

This may also help paint the picture: http://www.architectmagazine.com/industry-news.asp?sectionID=1006&articleID=825614

Cheers,
Link.

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Djordje — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 04:17:30 GMT

It is bleak sunshine around here.

Most, if not all, of the big pies in the sky are gone. Banks do not lend any more, although the government does have the money from the 100+ US$ oil times, and is trying hard to restart the cycle.

The problem is, the bubble was created by the speculators, who only wanted to flip. The majority was interested in making money, not actually building or living in the property bought. Off plan or not, the situation is the same.

As you cannot live here if you don't have an employment - that is, if you are one of the 85% of the population that is not an UAE national - a lot of people have left since December, the roads are markedly emptier, the rents are down by 35% on the average, the prices of the real estate are down by 50%.

The international consultancies that have come here in the boom are mostly gone, or, if they are still here, retain a skeleton staff that is trying to hold on to what is actually being done.

It is not that the projects have stopped, far from it when infrastructure is involved. It was woefully lacking anyway. However, the mega giga tera projects that fuelled the influx of people, therefore blasting the cost of everything to heaven are no more, and whoever stays will make do with less, in a more "normal" environment.

On one hand, a welcome clean up as it was really too much in 2008. On the other, salary cuts, redundancies, and one way ticket out. Hopefully paid for by the employer.

Four cancelled, three new came in, fighting for two more. The existing ones going on. Despite the salary cut, can't complain. There are people much worse off.

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Chazz — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 19:06:45 GMT

Djordje wrote:
It is bleak sunshine around here.

I was hoping you would speak up. I couldn't really imagine what was going on in your neck of the woods. Thanks.

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Anonymous — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 22:23:38 GMT

The bubble is gone, but the base may not be once people stop panicking.
Remember, they use to call recessions "panics". Lets not!
Fargo N.D. may be in the news for how well their economy is doing, but there are many other bright spots.
It's not that bad where I'm at.
Surly you know of a bright spot.
Post it here.
Lets turn this around now!!
thanks
lec

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Djordje — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 03:52:40 GMT

lec1212 wrote:
The bubble is gone, but the base may not be once people stop panicking.

Quite so.

In 2008, the real estate prices have gone more than 80% up, rents in some cases 150% up. Now they are - average and anecdotal, nothing official until April - 50% and 30% down, respectively. That still leaves a healthy margin compared to 2007. When you hit 140 on the highway, and then slow down to 100, it seems like you are standing still. Not.

The problem is, most of the generated revenue was actually paper money. I owe 10 000, they owe me 20 000, therefore I have 10 000. Not really. We could also argue that all the money in the world is actually paper money, and doe snot exist, but ... architects are not good in economics, usually 😉

The question now is where is the base? The trust is completely gone, and the real problem is that the demand was artificial, fueled by the speculators. The real demand is maybe 80% of the supply. Another problem is that most of the housing units are sold as upmarket, not really living up to it in the terms of the building quality and infrastructure, laws and regulations are changing.

The government is doing its best, but it is the developers that have gambled on the ever growing demand and ever growing prices - and lost.

Who survives, will tell.

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Djordje — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 03:54:17 GMT

Chazz wrote:
Djordje wrote:
It is bleak sunshine around here.
I was hoping you would speak up. I couldn't really imagine what was going on in your neck of the woods. Thanks.

Just read arabianbusiness.com:

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/548165-abu-dhabi-property-prices-fall-by-up-to-25

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/548176-building-cheaper-properties-way-forward-for-gulf---experts

It is all there.

Be sure to read between the lines, and all the comments! ;D

And the expression is "in the neck of the desert"

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Anonymous — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 17:27:54 GMT

Central Texas, USA

The outlook is positive, the current reality is bleak. Firms are laying people off and I am getting calls from friends looking for work. As a sole practitioner, I am using the down turn to reinvent or "reload" (as I like to say) my business. I recently took the LEED exam and passed it (3 weeks of hard core studying though). I am also joining several green building associations and looking at the becoming more visible with the local Home Builders Association. At a recent Green Building Summit in North Texas, there were more than 600 builders with the intent on becoming "green". These are folks I want to go after. As I understand it, once the economy rebounds, the demand for "green" homes and "green" remodels will be huge. I will be ready to pounce!

Funny thing is that I have always designed "green" but did not have the handy labels nor did I project this image of me as a sustainable designer. That is what I am changing and I suspect the architects who want to tap the new administrations goal of creating a new "green" economy will have to work on their image.

It is a tough time for all, but that is where the opportunity lies, IMO.

+pablo

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Anonymous — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 09:14:56 GMT

Green...
Well I've been gone some time, but checking back on this thread with an update.

In E. Europe, almost ALL projects are stopped- or if they were at 100kmh, they moved to about 1kmh. Every EVERY SINGLE firm and group or independent I worked with has almost NO work. The firmly established architectural firms either let everyone go or they keep them on at dirt wages, and have little work to do. There's some civic work still happening and permits processing work for older jobs, but that's it. A few village and town remodels of sidewalks and main streets or traffic flow, some renovations of small budget things, a few BANKS finishing up their projects...
(what, the banks still have money? LOL! oh THAT's what that "bail-out" money was for- so the BANKERS wouldn't have to change anything about their lives. DUH!!!)...

...Back in the good ol' USA, everyone, and I mean EVERYONE I HAVE EVER KNOWN (500+ people and firms) are dead. And I mean if they still go into the office, it's to get their mail and check phone messages, if they haven't disconnected the lines or routed them to an answering service they can call into. NO ONE is getting paid. The only jobs I know of are some of the biggest firms who have cut staff by 2/3rd and still have too many people. Almost all the USA builders either are bankrupt, foreclosed or out of business. The best small firms, who have been doing "green" work for the last 10-15 years are squeeking by on no income and narrowly avoiding bankruptcy by selling all their spec homes. They are hopeful but no real clients insight yet (not enough for me to even spend an hour giving them an idea of what they could do with what they might be able to afford).

I've heard that "renovation and remodels" are still happening, in a severely reduced number, as people still want changes in their homes, and a few big LEED and commercial projects are still happening, but they are left over from investments from the last 5+ years, and in the final stages of construction.

I see a few projects here and there, but knowing what I know, they were designed and built over 2 years ago and the money committed and possibly paid for or into an account or project, in a way that it's already been paid for. Even there I see that pauses happen while changes get made to the original designs, or again, the buildings and renovations get put on hold, in what looks like an E.European way- indefinitely.

So, pending smaller clients with renovations and remodels, or helping other designers and architects out with my AC skills, I'm looking at going back to school to do something else.

I believe for most of the world, that we won't need new architects for a few decades- there will still be plenty that need work many, many years from now.

On a more positive note, if you don't mind working for free, or for chickens and goats, there's some cool things happening in community and sharing resources and helping out. It won't pay your mortgage but it sure is fun. We're the people who can show others how it will or might look and fit in, or not. That's a skill that will always be in demand, even if there's not much pay!

Peace and hope everyone is weathering the changes in a good way.

-JP

Re: Your Take: How is the Economy & Business Affecting Y

Anonymous — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 16:18:09 GMT

Sorry JP, but I have to disagree.
I've been design/ building for 30yrs and I've been busy this whole time!
They have just hired an additional plan checker at our county permit dept.
Groups of people are banding together purchasing properties and renovating
them.
News update from Calif.
The uptick has already begun.
Sorry if it's not in your area.
Yes the big speculating cats over built but the grass roots economy is NOT dead but growing day by day.
Keep a song in your heart.
"Live long and prosper."