Autodesk University - a view from the floor

[Aaron Bourgoin]

I spent last week in Las Vegas attending Autodesk University. Earlier this year I decided I would walk headlong into the Borg encampment at the edge of the Mojave and reconnoiter.

I was curious about a number of things:

1) what was the Autodesk ecosphere about
2) how did it’s citizens differ from those in the Graphisoft galaxy
3) what is ADSK doing with all the technology they’ve acquired
4) was their outlook on BIM different than mine and, if so, how
5) do they really hand out all the swag people talk about
6) why do they call it a university and not a convention

I arrived at the spaceport and waited for the bags to arrive. I met an old colleague from Graphisoft Reseller conferences and in what was to be the first of many meetings over the week, we outlined our respective missions. Mr. X is a Reviteer, not by choice, but as a consequence of a leveraged buyout of a large ArchiCAD firm by a larger Revit firm. I was not a reluctant convert, I explained. I was on a fact finding mission, intent on divining the truth about all that is not ArchiCAD. Mine is a career in transition. In the end, it’s the same diff, I guess.

At long last me, the bags and my friends and my colleagues from Europe were reunited at the carrousel. We were renting a muscle car and planning to play hooky at least one morning to take in the engineering marvel that is Hoover Dam.

While my friend was filling out the forms I struck up a conversation with his cohort and quickly learned that they knew something about ArchiCAD, but that they didn’t consider it BIM. It required considerable restraint and diplomacy to remind them that BIM had survived at least one lifecycle as a species before Revit came along and that we had a whole week to arrive at some understanding of this.

We piled into the car and headed for the Mandalay Bay. Talk of a Liebeskind designed development ensued and there it was, off in the distance, peeking over the excess of New York, New York.

The buzz at this year’s AU centered on the rollout of the ADSK collaborative environment. THE CLOUD, to wit. And so the first session I attended was appropriately entitled BIM Collaboration. This was the first of quite a few sessions that didn’t really live up to their names. BIM collaboration in this case meant the enabling substrate for the collaboration - hardware mostly with a bit of software thrown in for good measure. THE CLOUD, if there was one, evidently didn’t float in the air, it had mass and a plug-in. The live demo featured someone manipulating a Revit model on an iPad. Of this, more later.

The crowd ate this up. Remember this a geekfest with at least ten thousand people in clothing that ranged from the decidedly preppy to ActiveWear with lumpy people inside. AU is often a reward for achieving a productivity goal and it was clear that some people are not let out of the cave for many hours of the day. To be out in public was enough. For the others, well they weren’t there. They were on cell phones in the hallway parked close to the bottled water and breakfast bars. I’d like to see more poets and philosophers in attendance, but to bring that about will require some subtle shifts in the curriculum.

One session down and really no BIM in sight. This played well to my archly ArchiCAD opinion that Reviteers have big ears and swelled heads and just pretend to know about this stuff. I stepped into the Attitude Adjustment Cell for a minute and made a decision about the next session. If not Collaboration, then surely the term Integrated would get me closer to an Apples to Apples comparison of these two mighty BIM engines.

The integrated practice in question was the interface between architects and interior designers, the latter being a decidedly flatland species. This proved to be one of the more useful sessions of the week as the presenters quickly got down to the business of presenting their office standards and protocols.

The presenters have clearly established a workflow that keeps one scope of work away from another. Revit presents it’s own unique opportunities for workarounds and these two were not shy to describe them as such. I respected their candour and the work that went into their rather clever solutions for getting paint onto a wall to be able to specify it.

I downloaded the course material to my iPad on the AU wi-fi, saved it to iBooks and followed along. I made some notes in a note-making app thingy and smiled at the woman beside me who was doing exactly the same thing. No slouch she. When I dropped two business cards into the basket for the in-session swag, she was onto my game in a second. Neither of us won anything.

The afternoon session was devoted to another favourite topic - Sustainable Design

Here I hoped to see BIM, Integrated Design and Building Simulation all rolled into one neat tidy bundle. The presenters talked about ideas which was a welcome change from the decidedly technical (how do you turn it on?) stuff in the morning sessions. The story to tell was how twelve architecture students had given up their spring break this year to do a workshop on basic sustainable design techniques enabled by Revit and Ecotect. The results were not eye candy, but these kids clearly learned enough about Ecotect to start working with it in the design studios on, what to them, would be real problems.

Two questions ensued. How was Ecotect being integrated into Revit? Answer: one part at a time, but with a sandbox called Vasari, ADSK can road test the tools and then bring them into Revit. Vasari is an open beta. a tool to use now, by anyone who cares to download it. Vasari may well be the first thing ADSK has produced on their own and rather than reserve it for the elect few, anyone can get down and dirty inside the app which is positioned as a Revit model browser. Is it flaky and buggy like Clarence says? Don’t know - haven’t tried it yet.

Second question, offered more as a suggestion was, to bring a few engineering students from the other side of the campus along with the architecture students next time and let them collaboratively work on the problem and learn a thing or two about their respective disciplines and cultures. Answer: we’re working on it.

So, AU is about education and I guess I saw some evidence of that from the moment I arrived.

Here in North America, we’ve taken three things for granted: BIM was probably invented in Europe, ADSK has no toehold in Europe, and that ADSK have subverted architectural education worldwide by supplanting real curriculum for technical dos and don’ts on the command line. I had been led to believe that ArchiCAD and AllPlan duked it out for market share and had enough of the market that ADSK couldn’t hope to compete.

Well it seems that apart from the Scandinavians, BIM is considered to be a brand new concept that has come along for the ride with Revit. I had thought that the ADSK marketing meme - “BIM invented here” was a North American phenomenon and that elsewhere in the world there were still sentient beings who understood that BIM began with ArchiCAD. A world where ArchiCAD had pole position like New Zealand for example where 85% of the architects use ArchiCAD.

I guess I was wrong.

And while we’re talking numbers, I would guess that fully 25% of the crowd were using iPads. It’s a platform crying out for the middleware and the apps to work across the spectrum of design, construction and management.

Among the myriad of souls I met last week, a few stood out. For example, there was Phillip, a wunderkind from Graz who had been flown to AU on ADSK’s dime to reward him for the work he’d done to create learning resources for himself and his fellow students across Europe. He was a kind of Harry Potter and at his version of Hogwarts he’d established an Order of the Phoenix along with all the other junior wizards so that they wouldn’t have to wait for their teachers to figure enough of it out to start teaching.

ADSK Education was everywhere in evidence at AU this year. Anyone affiliated with ADSK Education is a front line worker at this conference. They direct people to sessions, they invigilate the exams, they populate booths for all disciplines. They’re working very hard and they all seem very, very happy.

Phillip is but one person in a program started in Germany and now rolled out world wide that establishes a place for student expertise that gives them both tools and to mentors charged with the task of them acquiring the tools to think strategically as well. It’s not a new Apple used to do this on campuses all over North America. In the 80s people, in the 1980s.

Well, AU was like a Jamboree for all the other Harry Potters out there and their enthusiasm showed up everywhere. Imagine a convention centre with 50 wunderkind bouncing off the walls like rogue electrons.

AU is also in large measure about certification - about how you measure up as it were. Take the certification exams at AU and they’re free. Do it from home and it costs money. My ArchiCAD comrade was here to get certified and he spent the first few days in study hall. He has ventured further down a road that seems more inevitable for him than than for me. We are both still in agreement that Revit is a crude cudgel compared to the Henckels hollow ground steel blade that is ArchiCAD. But the Certification Exam is real, not something waiting in the wings. ADSK has Certified Professionals. Graphisoft has a Hall of Fame, but no Proctors.

But here we are. At AU. And no one around us - and I mean no one - cares. With the Day One sessions over I headed off to the Education Reception on the 65th floor of THE hotel. The drinks are free as long as the drink you want isn’t normally priced higher than $12 bucks. We order gin on the rocks, vermouth on the rocks and make our own Martinis. Resourceful people these Education types to figure that out.

Day Two saw me in search of sessions that were designated as Education topics and panel groups. The latter were in short supply that day and so off I went to look at examples of ADSK assisting in the development of curriculum.

Enter Stephen Stott. Stephen has turned the notion of what ADSK’s role in education is on its head. The first slide he shows depicts him as a facilitator in a design workshop on biomimicry. And he’s drawing shit with a pencil, or a charcoal stick, or something. WTF?

Stephen is based in the UK, but his sandbox is the big wide world. He’s brought some educators with him today and one teaches high school outside of Toronto somewhere and the other is the most improbable looking professor I’ve ever seen in my life. Oliver Jones is a mountain of a man dressed as you might imagine Tom Jones to be in his off hours. He’s from Newcastle and he looks more like someone who pulls on the brown ale taps in a pub. A Western shirt, a Vest and Cowboy Boots.

The Ontario students are designing solar cars with solar panels and 3D printers for the bodies. Stephen shows them one way to deconstruct an animal - a horse, a toad, a human - into basic shapes and from that studied abstraction render the form of a new car. For some, the 3D printer can’t generate the form he sees, so he goes home and carves it out of clay.

The University of North Umbria architecture students aren’t doing BIM, nor are they learning how to use Revit. Stephen and Oliver have teamed up to develop problem based design projects that seem less theoretical than design projects were in my day and yet have a freshness and a language that we would expect to see from more seasoned, experienced designers.

Having developed the basis of a design language first, these kids are ready to wrap their heads around BIM and not produce work that is not constrained by the tool they use. A sandbox is a place to be experimental, not confined.

Okay. Sure. This is what design students around the world do. Many using ArchiCAD, to be sure. So what sets all this AU-ADSK stuff apart?

Graphisoft - at least on this continent - have abandoned Education as a market. I learned just this week that the person responsible for liaising with Schools was doing so largely over the phone and that he’s abandoned this post to do direct sales to commercial clients. To my way of thinking, this is sending a boy - a child soldier out to do a man’s work. A kid, with little or no practical experience selling a tool to the profession. Meanwhile, he’s created a vacuum: a blind spot: a chink. It’s not enough - clearly - to just put the stuff up on the Web.

ADSK established Education as a serious part of their business plan and at AU it shows. I was astonished this Fall when AutoCad was teleported back to Mac OS. Well guess what. This had less to do with professional demand and more with the realization that the majority of students making contact with ADSK’s Education web portals were doing so with Macs. Future clients are driving part of the development strategy and, if Stephen Stott, is any example to go by, they can bring creative minds to the table as well.

Surely Revit for MacOS is not far behind.

Apparently it’s working. In Germany alone, ADSK geared up to deliver 10,000 downloads a month from their servers. In the first week, some 30,000 copies were served out to the Mac hungry masses.

Day 3 was going to be devoted to the interface of all stakeholders in the Construction Economy. General Contractors, not architects are doing BIM here in North America and it was time to see what strides they’ve made. Vicosoftware is not, strictly speaking, about ArchiCAD centric modeling any more. Nor is Trelligence’s Pre-Design tool Affinity. They both serve as intermediaries with Revit models as well.

For the last two years, it has been the Construction discussion forums that have really been exploring and carving out a knowledge base about BIM. Architects haven't. ArchiCAD-Talkers really haven’t been looking at BIM from a high level and if you are I don’t know where you hang out. On the Revit side, it’s an open question as well. The AUGI forums are gone as of this week, apparently. Was it too much a griping pit?

Well, back to the Workshop. It was clear after the first hour that the facilitators had bitten off more than they could realistically chew. The deliverable was a BIM Execution Plan and they’d brought a lot of examples with them, but not much in the way of common sense. The problem they set was so open ended that by the time the cookies and Dr. Peppers were set out in the hall, the groups raced for the exits.

Rather than be smug about this, I was really disappointed. By this time I had stopped thinking about a specific platform and hoped to look BIM squarely in the eye. Revit Schmevit, Cloud / workset / Teamwork: who cared. I didn’t. This was a purely BIM-centric issue and so disagreement was inevitable and any position fair game.

The Construction guys abandoned the B.E.P. stuff and turned the session into a discussion about what kinds of tools there were out there to interface with building product manufacturers and systems suppliers. When the opportunity arose, I raised my hand and suggested that one could do MEP in ArchiCAD and collaborate via IFCs.

A hush fell on the room.

It won’t work, the Contractor said. We tried it a long time ago and the results were less than ideal. ArchiCAD’s a pretty primitive modeler and this is about Revit anyway.

The crowd breathed a sigh of relief and carried on.

I departed. Disappointed. The collaboration angle we want to see between ArchiCAD and Revit is not perceived to be there. Certainly not by this group. Not this year at any rate.

I decided to head for the Certification Hall. My friends are trying to establish an ADSK Training Centre at their University and so at least one of them had to have the credentials to be considered. One of them stepped up and scored 100%. Mission accomplished.

Andreas has used ArchiCAD, Vectorworks and now Revit. His University abandoned the Graphisoft platform as there wasn’t much rapport between the Graphisoft reps in Germany and the CAAD lab. ADSK saw an opportunity, took some great feedback from the Institute and gave it’s director the Mr. BIM Germany award this year. The relationship is collaborative and mutually beneficial. And just so that we’re clear, this University does all sorts of research that goes beyond anything ADSK can provide. It’s multi-disciplinary, global, savvy and streetwise. There is no Kool-Aid being served at their Institution.

In total, I have had Revit in my hands for a total of two hours. I walked into the examination hall and wrote the tests cold. I scored 50% on the written exam and 25% on the hands-on section. Someone gave me a copy of Mastering Revit for my troubles. I was relieved to note that my scores were what they should have been and that my poor showing helped to validate the results Andreas achieved.

Next year, I’ll ace them. And write the Inventor Exams cold.

And then it was Friday. Time to de-camp. We piled into the muscle car, took one last drive down the strip and there we were at the airport. I said good-bye to my European friends and checked in for my flight back to Canada.

I ran into my ArchiCAD colleague one last time on the secure side of the terminal. He’d brought his wife with him to Vegas and I suspect he came to write the exams and see a few shows. Not much more. The two of them looked happy to be going home. The certification will prove useful in the workplace. And mercifully, despite the bad economic times, there is a workplace to go back to.

So there we had been he and I, two people in a sea of ten thousand souls. We’ve been to Sales Meetings and Partner Conferences the world over in the last fifteen years. We’ve forged fast friendships with colleagues from around the world and in those brief moments the Graphisoft universe has always seemed very large. Suddenly it seemed very, very small.

In the three days I spent at AU I was always made to feel welcome inside the big tent. On at least two occasions I felt that everything I’ve learned and developed and evangelized about BIM had some relevance. Not all the time, but some of the time.

We haven’t got a Rosetta Stone yet, but we had better come up with one pretty quickly. A Rosetta stone that will be an interface device between ArchiCAD and Revit. But let’s be frank. For some, this Rosetta Stone will be a transitional roadmap to better navigate the fork in the road.

All in all, I think I learned that we - the ArchiCADders - have been the smug ones. We have good reason to be as long as we are talking about the tool on our belt. But like it or not, the tool is not the one true thing. that one true thing is the work we do and no one does this work in isolation. No one.

Graphisoft continues to produce the superior product for doing BIM, but they have not created the user experience that their sole competitor has. Not even close. Not even some proportional approximation of the experience that is Autodesk University.

The lesson of AU wasn’t about software at all. In the end it would appear to be all about the collective buzz of people trying to figure it out.

Don’t get me wrong. There are plenty of opportunities to feel jaded about the AU Event itself. Carl Bass is no Steve Jobs, but he still does a keynote. And the reception where we were fed hamburgers and wine while we listened to the ADSK Executive Team talk about THE CLOUD really gave them an opportunity to thank Cisco, Dell and HP - their sponsors. Those events were about sales and the real audience were those who talked about sales stuff. Bums in seats.

But you know what? These guys - the suits - show up. And for one week they manage to assemble a highly organized event that can be just about whatever you want it to be.

In my fifteen years using and selling ArchiCAD that has never happened.

BTW, Hoover Dam was awesome.
Swag Collected or Pilfered: 4 T-Shirts; Mastering Revit 2011; and 5 martini glasses.

[Anonymous]

Bricklyne wrote:
I will never understand why GS decided to abandon the North American market the way they seemingly did, especially when they have the superior product as you've pointed out and as is evident to anybody who has used both ArchiCAD and Revit.

GS has not abandoned the NA market. Their marketing efforts may be insufficient to win against Autodesk and grow their share but they have not given up either. The problem is that GS does not have the huge base of 2D CAD users across multiple disciplines nor a long list of other products to boost their gross earnings that Autodesk has. They have one specialized product that serves primarily the most cost sensitive sector of the building industry (Architects).

Sadly I warned Gabor about this problem almost 20 years ago and made recommendations to address it which went unheeded for far too long. I do wish that Nemetschek had a more aggressive and coherent plan for countering the Autodesk juggernaut but there is sufficient competition to Autodesk overall that GS may still be able to maintain a niche for themselves.

[Anonymous]

Bricklyne wrote:
And now it's only a matter of time before Autodesk establish themselves and Revit in what I can only assume GS presumes to be its traditional strongholds in Europe, Asia and South Pacific (Australia and N. Zealand).

I don´t see how you can make that leap of logic, unless you see the world as totally USAcentric.

For instance, if you analyze Google Trends (as good a metric as any other available), you find that, in France for instance, the trends have stabilized and favor ArchiCAD 2 to 1:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=archicad%2C+revit&ctab=0&geo=fr&geor=all&date=ytd&sort=0
In Germany also:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=archicad%2C+revit&ctab=0&geo=de&geor=all&date=ytd&sort=0
and Italy:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=archicad%2C+revit&ctab=0&geo=it&geor=all&date=ytd&sort=0
and Poland:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=archicad%2C+revit&ctab=0&geo=pl&geor=all&date=ytd
UK is the other way around, in line with the USA:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=archicad%2C+revit&ctab=0&geo=gb&geor=all&date=ytd&sort=0
As is Spain:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=archicad%2C+revit&ctab=0&geo=es&date=ytd&sort=1

That is of course without going into all the smaller countries.
The European construction ecosystem is very heterogeneous, so the danger of having a AEC software monopoly is much smaller than in the USA. This happened with AutoCAD, and I see no reason for it not to happen again with Revit.

[Anonymous]

Nice post Krippahl

Thanks for the uplifting reality check for the new year.

And of a small grass-roots level, in my little 100k population area in Calif, the ratio of Archicad to Revit is.... Archicad is used 2-1
And just was told by my civil engineer I was the first one to give him EXACTLY what he has been asking for in the structural sheets for him to read in Autocad right out of AC-14.

But I'm just a small time guy and don't know what the world market is like.

[Bricklyne Clarence]

Krippahl wrote:

Bricklyne wrote:
And now it's only a matter of time before Autodesk establish themselves and Revit in what I can only assume GS presumes to be its traditional strongholds in Europe, Asia and South Pacific (Australia and N. Zealand).

I don´t see how you can make that leap of logic, unless you see the world as totally USAcentric.

For instance, if you analyze Google Trends (as good a metric as any other available), you find that, in France for instance, the trends have stabilized and favor ArchiCAD 2 to 1:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=archicad%2C+revit&ctab=0&geo=fr&geor=all&date=ytd&sort=0
In Germany also:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=archicad%2C+revit&ctab=0&geo=de&geor=all&date=ytd&sort=0
and Italy:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=archicad%2C+revit&ctab=0&geo=it&geor=all&date=ytd&sort=0
and Poland:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=archicad%2C+revit&ctab=0&geo=pl&geor=all&date=ytd
UK is the other way around, in line with the USA:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=archicad%2C+revit&ctab=0&geo=gb&geor=all&date=ytd&sort=0
As is Spain:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=archicad%2C+revit&ctab=0&geo=es&date=ytd&sort=1

That is of course without going into all the smaller countries.
The European construction ecosystem is very heterogeneous, so the danger of having a AEC software monopoly is much smaller than in the USA. This happened with AutoCAD, and I see no reason for it not to happen again with Revit.

You do realize that just because more people are searching Google for information on ArchiCAD than on Revit does not necessarily mean that they are in fact using it in that same higher percentage as the Google trend suggests, right?
In other words, there's nothing reliable about using Google trends as a metric as you're suggesting, for finding out the usage statistics of various software, any more than there is in speculating exactly how much the exact usage are, particularly when both companies will never release information on how many licenses are sold per year.

Besides which, it's a moot point.

I wasn't suggesting that Revit is now more widely used or more widely researched on the net than ArchiCAD, and most certainly not in Europe.

My argument was that given the overwhelmingly larger resources and more extensive reach of Autodesk as a firm (than, say Nemetschek), and also given the FACT that AutoCAD (an Autodesk product, or rather their flagship product) is the most widely used CAD application WOLRDWIDE (Including in Europe where you're suggesting it's not) for Architecture and other related disciplines, that it isn't entirely unreasonable to speculate that they would leverage those two significant advantages to their benefit in trying to establish a foothold with Revit in Europe or other market-bases which traditionally lean more towards the ArchiCAD side. Certainly the same way they used AutoCAD in combination with their aggressive marketing muscle to establish Revit here in North America.

I don't see how that is any more a leap of logic than it is a logical deduction.

And yes, I get that Europe is not as homogeneous as you think I'm suggesting (which I wasn't - and to be clear, America, much less North America as a whole, is likewise not nearly as homogeneous as you think it is, neither).

And you posting Google trends which may at best provide a mere glimpse, or even a sliver of a glimpse as to the current situation vis-a-vis actual usage rather than a true full picture of actual usage in Europe today and could likewise have been true for North America 5 or even 8 years ago, does not change that one bit.

All I'm doing is sounding out the same warning that people may have sounded out 7-8 years ago when Autodesk began bundling free copies of Revit with AutoCAD to try and get a foothold here in the North American market.
We all know how that worked out.
They now virtually own the term BIM and liberally use it as if it's synonymous with Revit.

If you feel (just as GS seemingly and presumably do) that this is not a concern for the long term and the larger picture, then so be it.
(Although there are indications and suggestions from insiders and Reps. that G.S. are starting to feel(belatedly) that there might be a problem with their complacence and general lethargy in the market)

There's a thin line and a short walk from being the pioneer product in a revolutionary field to being a niche product in a market dominated by others and having to conform to standards set by those others (as we clearly observed with ArchiCAD 14's key new features) rather than blazing the trail yourself and setting the standards on your own.

[Anonymous]

Bricklyne wrote:
You do realize that just because more people are searching Google for information on ArchiCAD than on Revit does not necessarily mean that they are in fact using it in that same higher percentage as the Google trend suggests, right?
In other words, there's nothing reliable about using Google trends as a metric as you're suggesting, for finding out the usage statistics of various software, any more than there is in speculating exactly how much the exact usage are, particularly when both companies will never release information on how many licenses are sold per year.

Hello Mr. Bricklyne, and a very good 2011 to you.

What Google trends tell you is that there is a trend for the last year, in countries like Germany, France and Italy, of searches related to ArchiCAD and Revit, that are stable (no significant growth or decline), and there are about double the searches for ArchiCAD than for Revit.

If there was a significant growth (or decline) in either user base, the search on the web on those subjects would reflect that. More users means more searches, as it is happening in NA.

I am not trying to find out how many licenses where sold, or how many are used, or even how many are used for other things than doing some nice renderings. My point is that there has been no significant change in search in those countries, for the last year or so.

If you have any other hard data that supports your assertion "And now it's only a matter of time before Autodesk establish themselves and Revit in (...) Europe", please feel free to share it with us. Otherwise, it is just empty speculation, of the Chicken Little variety.

As for the alleged inability on the part of GS of understanding the market and reacting accordingly, not being privy to their decision process, the only thing I can say without entering the speculation field is that they have a decent track record, and have for the past 25 years or so managed to make the right decisions, otherwise they would have gone the same way of all the other software makers that made the wrong ones.

[Bricklyne Clarence]

Krippahl wrote:
........
Hello Mr. Bricklyne, and a very good 2011 to you.

What Google trends tell you is that there is a trend for the last year, in countries like Germany, France and Italy, of searches related to ArchiCAD and Revit, that are stable (no significant growth or decline), and there are about double the searches for ArchiCAD than for Revit.

If there was a significant growth (or decline) in either user base, the search on the web on those subjects would reflect that. More users means more searches, as it is happening in NA.

This is all pure assumption on your end.
You have absolutely no proof that absolutely everyone who was conducting those Google searches was doing so because they are regular oor even effectively users of either software.
Most regular users do not necessarily rely on "Google searches" for help information or information in general for their chosen software.
In fact most users tend to rely on forums such as this on or the formerly defunct AUGI forum on the Autodesk side.
So how exactly does your 'Google trends as a proof' account for users like that?

Like I said, pure assumption.

Krippahl wrote:
I am not trying to find out how many licenses where sold, or how many are used, or even how many are used for other things than doing some nice renderings. My point is that there has been no significant change in search in those countries, for the last year or so.

And my point in response was that that information that you provided for Google trends proves exactly nothing in telling us any useful information regarding how the actual usage trends of the various software are moving.
You just summarily assumed that they are completely reflective of actual user numbers without bothering to provide any data supporting this assumption.

Your assumption would be akin to someone suggesting that just because a certain politician A (let's just call her Parah Salin) gets higher Google search trends than a different politician B (let's say Oarack Bobama), then that automatically means that politician A has more supporters and admirers than politician B.
It doesn't.

Google trends tell us absolutely nothing about the people conducting the searches or what their motivations for conducting said searches are.

It just gives you current trend.
Nothing more.

Krippahl wrote:
If you have any other hard data that supports your assertion "And now it's only a matter of time before Autodesk establish themselves and Revit in (...) Europe", please feel free to share it with us. Otherwise, it is just empty speculation, of the Chicken Little variety.

It was a deduction based on what I believe is common knowledge of what Autodesk own (the most CAD, or AutoCAD users worldwide) and what method they used based on that to establish Revit as the most prevalent BIM software here in North America (i.e bundling free copies with of it with copies of AutoCAD, and saturating the airwaves, so to speak, with advertising for Revit).
And opinion if you may.
And I don't have to provide any hard evidence for what everyone knows to be true. Unless you're trying to claim that AutoCAD is not more popular and most commonly used in the AEC even there in Portugal.

Krippahl wrote:
As for the alleged inability on the part of GS of understanding the market and reacting accordingly, not being privy to their decision process, the only thing I can say without entering the speculation field is that they have a decent track record, and have for the past 25 years or so managed to make the right decisions, otherwise they would have gone the same way of all the other software makers that made the wrong ones.

Which is flawed logic that inherently assumes (once again) that they aren't currently heading in that particular directions or that they aren't currently making wrong decisions that might be in the process of leading them there.

Just because they aren't dead or defunct already, doesn't mean that they can't end up that way. Particularly if they prove incapable of adapting to a changing marketplace which looks vastly different to the one that they may have thrived in for the last 25 years.

Or put another way:- 25 years ago, or even 15 years ago, they weren't in Autodesk's line of sight, and Revit didn't even exist as a software. So really, what GS was able or not able to do then, to thrive as a business then is irrelevant to what they have to face today.)

[Anonymous]

I am pointing at the stability of the searches, ie, that there is no significant growth or reduction in searches of those two softwares, and in the mentioned countries the trend is 2:1 in favor of ArchiCAD.

I tend to favor Occam's Razor in this instance (Google it up...), and go for the simplest explanation , which is, the user base is stable and it favors ArchiCAD 2:1. That is not to say that everyone and only those using the software Google it, but just correlating growth of users with growth of searches.

The contrary (stable searches but significant growth or reduction of users) demands more assumptions - which you don't provide, or at least don´t provide data of.

As for your assuption that AutoCAD is the most popular AEC software in Europe (whatever popular means) and basing this on the scientific "And I don't have to provide any hard evidence for what everyone knows to be true", I would suggest that doing a Google search (!) would get you here: http://www.nemetschek.com/de/home/presse/pressemitteilungen/news_detail/article//nemetschek-doubles-... and here: http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Nemetschek_(NEM-FF) , where it is clearly states that "The Nemetschek Group is Europe's leading vendor of software for architecture and construction. " and "Nemetschek is market leader in the AEC software segment in Europe and behind Autodesk worldwide number two."

As for my faith is Graphisoft, it is based on their track record. I assume they tend to make the right decisions (or at least not the fatally wrong ones), I assume they have more data than we have (they are in the business after all), and I assume they are interested in surviving. Those are reasonable assumptions, because they are based on consistent behavior from their part for the last 25 years.

You assumption is that they have no right making decision culture, that they are autistic regarding the market, and they don´t care if they survive or not (as a company and as employed individuals). Or else you are assuming the same that I am (good track record, consistently good decisions, interested in surviving), but are now convinced that this is changing, and they are getting stupid, blind and suicidal. The first assumptions contradict the evidence (25 years) and the second lacks proof.

[Aaron Bourgoin]

Still trying to decide whether a more lengthy response to this is appropriate or not- 2150+ 'reads' of this thread is quite something. Nothing I'd ever anticipated to be sure.

When I wrote post #1 I was very conscious of two things: what does BIM mean in an ecosystem that feigns invention of the concept (Autodesk's as opposed to "ours"); and how do they get that message out in a meaningful way? Beyond what we construe to be advertising, that is.

In this thread, BIM dropped out entirely and rather quickly and what ensued seems to be about vision and marketing. BIM, vision and marketing are symbiotic, or should be if you are Graphisoft, Bentley, Nemetschek NA, or even BOGOcad. Shouldn't they?

A few observations:

The Google trending discussion is suggestive of many things as the debate which rages here suggests. It also speaks (to me) to the paucity of information coming from the Mother Ship and (to extend the analogy) the Death Star that excites. Webinars excepted.

The company and the conglomerate that has a vested interest in it are really just sitting back and letting guys like you get the word out for them. Really. They are.

The buzz as a result continues to be stuck in the "how-to", the technical support school of marketing doesn't seem to be working well enough.

When did anyone last read an annual report from Graphisoft. If Nemetschek publishes them now, why not put a pointer to it on the GS web site? A search through the 2010 news clippings yields no results. Googling this topic takes me to 2001. That's two lifecycles of BIM ago.

So, what about some of those fundamentals. You know, the stuff that investors might look at when trying to decide where to put there money. What story do you get when you look at the corporate stuff. A very (Very!) cursory glance this morning left me agog.

Graphisoft used to have a larger board of directors and there used to be at least one "visionary" sitting on the board. Currently there are 5 board members - bean counters, Nemetschek people. No one who is directly connected to the world of AECL. No one whose cv suggests insight into marketing.

It is pure surmise on my part, but I thought that Graphisoft was founded as the child of a symbiotic relationship between a brilliant architecture/engineering student and his equally brilliant advisor. Sparks flew and a company with a product to sell emerged.

There is not one person on the Management team of Graphisoft who has anything to do with Education. I'll leave it at that for now, but I think this is singularly relevant to the discussion that has flowed from the original post.

You can't run a small company in this vertical segment without a one part of the team concentrating on Education as a key part of marketing, product development, idea generation, etc., etc. without some focus on education. The event that is Autodesk University is a nexus of many threads related to the sale, development and dissemination of the brand. And they dare to call it a "University". If diversity of thought, the sharing of ideas, learning, R&D and a healthy dose of politics can be construed as something collegial, then that's exactly what they've done.

The technical prowess of ArchiCAD and all who pour their guts into it everyday need help getting the message out. Professional help. If you do something too long in a particular way you risk becoming insular to the point of stasis. (an analogy - there was an architecture school in Canada that seemed to only hire graduates of that school as faculty - not a good long term strategy if ideas and growth matter to you).

The app store opens today. Maybe GS was waiting for this. What impact might this have on the ArchiCAD ecosystem? Smaller sales overhead. More money for marketing and brand recognition work perhaps. Cheaper for you and I to buy in and keep going we hope.

Finally, a reference to Autism can't go un-noticed or without a witty punchline, so here goes.

Do you think it is Asperger's Syndrome or simply having one's heads up one's arse, that we're talking about here?

[Bricklyne Clarence]

Krippahl wrote:
.....
You assumption is that they have no right making decision culture, that they are autistic regarding the market, and they don´t care if they survive or not (as a company and as employed individuals). Or else you are assuming the same that I am (good track record, consistently good decisions, interested in surviving), but are now convinced that this is changing, and they are getting stupid, blind and suicidal. The first assumptions contradict the evidence (25 years) and the second lacks proof.

I made no such assumption(s).

You either misread, misunderstood or deliberately twisted the point I was trying to make by simplifying it to a false dilemma of two gross assumptions that I didn't even make or present in the first place.


My point, - and I clearly state this - was that whatever marketing decisions, strategies and driving motivations they may have had 25 years ago, or for most of the past 25 years that may have not only helped them survive but also even thrive as a trailblazing pioneer in this nascent field, may not necessarily be viable today or capable of sustaining their perceived success or continued success especially when placed in the context of an Marketplace and Design and Construction Industry that has changed considerably in those same 25 years.

This is NOT the same thing as claiming (As you incorrectly alleged I did) that they do not have the "right making decision culture, that they are autistic regarding the market, and they don´t care if they survive or not".

Nor is it the same as suggesting that they are getting "stupid, blind, and/or suicidal"

I merely correctly observed that what may have worked for them 25 years ago or for most of the past 25 years may not work for them today or 5 or 10 years from today.
This isn't just a reasonable assumption - it's common sense.
If you don't adapt as an entity to a changing environment you stand a high risk of dying.

And there's plenty of evidence to support the assertion that they are getting either lethargic or downright complacent in their development efforts and you don't have to be a scientific genius to figure this one out.

Just take a look at the past threads announcing the releases of their most recent versions and see how users voice their concerns with what they correctly perceive to be an apparent disinterest from and apathy by GS to urgently or directly address their most basic concerns in the Software for the last 4 or 5 versions.

This isn't the sort of dissatisfaction or stagnated growth and development that will show up simply by looking in a company's books and trying to assess its financial "health" and viability (especially since a subscription-based business model such as they one they now employ tends to insure that you make money and profits regardless of whether your long-term customers are happy with your product or not).

Or put another way; I think Aaron put it best (and better than me) when he said in his post (and I really love this line Aaron:):-

" If you do something too long in a particular way you risk becoming insular to the point of stasis. (.... - not a good long term strategy if ideas and growth matter to you) "

[Anonymous]

G.S. Could you please censure Bricklyne?
He's at again, with long windy rear end ranting against Graphisoft.
This type of negativity doesn't help.